Struggles to make household disposable income an important economic goal
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Struggles to make household disposable income an important economic goal

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Sir Keir Starmer will target household disposable income as a new “milestone” to gauge the success of his economic policies, even as aides insist he remains committed to making Britain the fastest-growing G7 economy.

Allies of the prime minister insist he is standing by Labours manifesto commitment to “secure the highest sustainable growth in the G7”, but he has subtly shifted focus away from that measure in recent months.

The Prime Minister will issue new targets for her government on Thursday as part of a “plan for change”, which ministers have insisted is not a relaunch after a rocky few months in power.

Labor strategists have long worried that the G7 pledge has inherent flaws, not least because the performance of other major economies is beyond Downing Street’s control.

Bar chart of GDP growth forecasts % shows UK is in the middle of the G7 growth league

Starmer’s team is also looking for ways to link the promise of economic growth – seen as Labour’s number one mission – to metrics ordinary voters can understand.

While GDP growth is an accurate measure of an economy’s overall performance, it is less good at measuring a population’s welfare and living standards. Household real disposable income measures total household income such as wages and benefits after tax and accounting for inflation.

Government insiders say raising household disposable income will be a target Starmer set out in his speech, but they say it will be an “additional” milestone and would not replace the G7 target.

Asked if Starmer had dropped his ambition to make Britain the fastest-growing G7 economy, a spokesman said: “Absolutely not.”

Labor appears to have wavered on the specific G7 target after announcing it last year.

In May – two months before the election – Starmer announced his six priorities for government, but a poster at the launch event contained a vague promise of “economic stability”, rather than the G7 pledge.

The target appeared in Labour’s manifesto published in June, and Starmer’s team insist it remains official party policy.

Starmer’s “plan for change” on Thursday will set out a series of targets covering the economy, health, education, crime and green energy, intended to show voters he is making progress on campaign promises and to put pressure on Whitehall to deliver.

However, the CBI employers’ association has warned that business confidence in future growth in the UK has fallen sharply since Chancellor Rachel Reeve’s Budget on October 30, which included £40bn of tax rises.

The CBI said that for the first time this year, growth expectations had tipped into negative territory.

Alpesh Paleja, the CBI’s interim deputy chief economist, said: “As we move into 2025, growth expectations have taken a decisive turn for the worse.”